The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) is currently monitoring two weather disturbances—one inside and one outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
One of these is a low-pressure area (LPA) that lies outside the PAR, along with cloud clusters that may become LPAs inland. According to state meteorologists, the cloud clusters forming in the north of Luzon are expected to become LPA on Thursday or Friday, and there is a possibility that it will strengthen and become a tropical cyclone over the weekend. If this happens, it will be called "Julian," and it will be the 10th typhoon to hit the Philippines this 2024.
Pagasa specialist Benison Estareja gave an update in the morning, and he said, “We may see an LPA formed from cloud clusters today or tomorrow. If it becomes a tropical cyclone over the weekend, it is likely to remain near northern Luzon, particularly east of Batanes.” He added, if it affects areas, it will mainly hit Northern Luzon.
As for the LPA outside the PAR, recent data shows that it is about 2,750 kilometers east of Central Luzon. However, Pagasa says it has a "low probability" of entering the PAR and is expected to move into the North Pacific Ocean, possibly becoming a weak typhoon on Thursday or Friday.
In the weather forecast for Thursday, Palawan and regions in the Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies and rain, caused by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Estareja explained that the ITCZ is the area where winds from the northern and southern hemispheres meet, causing increased cloud formation.
Easterly winds from the Pacific Ocean will also continue to affect the weather in the Philippines on Thursday. Meanwhile, in Metro Manila and other parts of Luzon, expect a hot day, with weather similar to the previous day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Localized thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon or evening, but are expected to be brief, lasting only two to three hours.
